Red wave or red wedding? GOP surges to highest numbers yet in generic ballot polling – HotAir

“Well, at least it couldn’t get any worse than this,” Joe Biden thinks as he surveys this Monmouth poll. Meanwhile, thousands of miles away, Vladimir Putin picks up the phone and gives the order to “go” to his generals out of Ukraine…

Coupla punches real Democrats in this new data from Monmouth. Biden has reached the lowest approval rating for his presidency in polls to date, overtaking Mendoza’s political streak by dropping from 40 percent last month to 39 now. Republicans also lead by 51/43 on the universal suffrage, an unprecedented advantage for the Republican Party at this point in the election cycle. (More on that below.) More Americans now identify as Republicans than Democrats as well despite the fact that the party is wholly owned by a twice impeached former president whose last meaningful job was to deliver a speech that inspired riots in the Capitol. How boy:

Currently, 26% of Americans identify themselves as Democrats, a number that ranged from 30% to 34% in the Monmouth poll over the past year. Republican identifiers currently stand at 31% of the population, an increase from 23% to 27% in 2021. Moreover, when these numbers are combined with independents who say they lean into any party, Republicans (51%) have a decided advantage over Democrats (41%).

Steadily rising inflation and another year of the pandemic will help many people forget the things they don’t like at outdoor parties.

I think that’s the hardest cut for the Democrats. Here’s what six months of daily messages about Build Back Better got me:

“Which side cares most about the financial well-being of ordinary people?” It should come as a fatal blow to the redistribution party, especially after it devoted so much energy to trying to pass a bill that would extend the child tax credit and provide paid family leave. Instead, Biden and Democrats No better than Trump and the Republicans on this question. And they do so despite Build Back Better itself polling aggressively here, with at least 61 percent supporting the bill to some extent.

How is this box? Is it a “messaging problem”, the terms leftists usually like to frame their failures? I do not think so. I think it’s a prioritization problem, where voters are frustrated that Democrats keep obsessing about the BBB while the average citizen worries about inflation. The Monmouth data confirms it: Only 24 percent of Americans, including less than half of Democrats (!), say passing the bill should be a top priority. The country is worried about inflation and disappointing job reports, not paid family leave. As far as Republicans understand that while progressives seem not to, the Republican Party wins the competition for which party is most in touch with the common man economically.

The important part about the midterms is that the general polling numbers in the Monmouth Poll are no exception. Other recent polls have shown Republicans scoring 48, 49, 53, and even 56 percent on the general ballot. Five different polls this month (including Monmouth’s) put them up by six points or more. Add it all up and you’ll find the Republican Party at its highest number all year in the average RCP poll:

There is a strange difference in opinion polls this month, with some polls showing both parties volatile while others show Republicans comfortably ahead. That helps explain the sudden rise in GOP numbers over the past 10 days, with more numbers from the latter than the former recently. I suspect this disparity is due to some pollsters including the “least weighed” more liberally than others, as leaner people tend to lean more Republicans now. In today’s Monmouth poll, in fact, smaller people account for most of the Republican Party’s big advantages: “[P]Taking advantage of those who initially said that party control does not matter in which direction they depend adds 15% to the GOP column versus a smaller 10% for Democrats.” That is the only hopeful observation of Democrats in the data, which is that voters who are likely to lead A red wave this fall they may not be fully committed to voting Republicans just yet.

But the RCP numbers are what they are. At 47.1 percent, Republicans are currently polling better than the general vote Start He did so during the year of the red wave of 2014. And while they eventually reached 47.1 percent in the red tsunami year of 2010, it wasn’t until August, once voters started making up their minds. In January 2010, Republicans didn’t even touch 46 percent, which means they’re currently ahead of their pace in a year that won them 63 House seats. It’s hard to believe things could get much bleaker for Biden and his party, but stay tuned.

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